$30,000 Betting System Challenge

Seventeen years and counting without a taker

Started: April 2008 • Last update: June 16, 2025

Any betting system that promises to make you a winner is a scam, and I’m so confident about this that I’m putting my money where my mouth is: I’ll offer my $30,000 against any system seller’s $3,000 that their betting system can't beat the house. My goal is to show that anyone selling a “winning system” on the Internet for $29.95 (or whatever) is selling junk. Anyone willing to reveal his system for $29.95 should be falling all over themselves to try to win my $30k, but not a single one has. The reason is simple: They know their systems don't actually work. Any system that you can buy is garbage.

I hope it’s also obvious to everyone that if someone had truly figured out a way to beat the house, why would they need to sell that secret for $29.95?

The challenge is now available only to people who are selling so-called “winning” systems. Here's why I no longer accept challenge requests from the general public.

In addition, I offer a $1000 prize to anyone who finds an exploitable flaw in my challenge that could result in someone beating it. That is, you don't have to put up any of your own money to get the $1000. See the details below.

Betting systems don't work for one simple reason: it’s impossible to predict what’s coming next. Just like you can't predict heads or tails on a coin flip, you can't predict red or black in roulette, or Banker or Player in baccarat. Past results are completely irrelevant, and basing your bets on them is futile. Streaks and patterns are observable only in hindsight, and have absolutely no bearing on future rounds. People often ask me, “But what if there's some method you haven't thought of?” The answer is IT DOESN'T MATTER, because there is NO way to predict the future. It‘s the same reason I’m confident that if I let you choose any number of nickels, the average of your chosen coins can never be more than 5¢.

Here's a more detailed explanation about why betting systems don't work.

Anyway, here are the terms of my challenge.

Bluejay’s $30,000 challenge

The Challenge:

This is a contest between you and me.
You win if you achieve your goal in the contest, I win if you don’t.
Your goal in the contest is to supply a betting system that beats a game of roulette, baccarat, or craps, as the player, using common (not exceptional) Vegas rules, starting with a generous $5000 bankroll (play money, not real money), in a computer simulation, as per the additional terms below.
You will pay $3000 to enter the contest, I will pay $30,000.
The winner of the contest wins the other’s entry fee.
This is not a gambling bet as per my state law, which defines “bet” as “an agreement to win or lose something of value solely or partially by chance.” If you win it will not be by any luck or chance, it will be because of your skill in devising a winning betting system.

Your system must be for sale. I don't accept challenges about systems that are not for sale, for numerous reasons, period. Don't waste your time or mine asking whether I'll test your not-for-sale system when I've already given you my answer. (This wording hasn't stopped idiots from writing and asking anyway.)
Bankroll, Game Rules, and Table Limits.
1. Starting bankroll for each test is $5000.
2. You choose the game.
3. The table limits are $5 minimum and $5000 maximum, except $25 minimum for single-zero roulette. Multiple different bets can be placed at the table max for the same spin of the wheel or roll of the dice, provided you have enough bankroll to do so. (i.e., The Table max isn’t enforced as the sum of all bets.)
4. Roulette can be single- or double-zero.
5. Craps has standard 3-4-5x odds. Maximum Free Odds can be taken on a Table Max pass line bet, provided you have enough bankroll.
6. In roulette, the minimum is for either a single outside bet, or the total of all inside bets.
Length. Each test will run for 200,000 rounds, or until the bankroll has gone bust, whichever comes first. A "round" is an event where any bet is resolved—i.e., your bet wins, loses, or pushes. (In craps, if multiple bets are resolved on a single roll of the die, that counts as one round.) It's fine for your system to sit out sometimes to wait for "streaks" or other conditions (up to 800,000 rounds sat out per test), but 200,000 rounds must be wagered on for each test (unless your system goes bust first). We'll run this test 20 times, and you win the challenge if your system wins at least 11 out of the 20 tests (i.e., it shows any profit at all). This is extremely generous, because your system doesn't have to win even $1 per hour, and doesn't have win all the time, just a mere 55% or more of the time. (For those who think this is a bad test because "nobody plays 200,000 rounds", see the explanation further below.)
Betting System. Your system must be one that could actually be used in a typical Vegas casino, since the point of your challenge should be to prove that you can win in a casino environment. So, for example, methods that attempt to exploit the computer's random number generator are specifically disallowed. Any system that wins by screwing with the RNG cannot win in a real casino. Similarly, any system that cannot be actually be employed by an average person with nothing more than a pen and paper is disallowed, since if a system can't be used in the real world then it's worthless. Your system must be a traditional betting system, where bets are based on the outcome of previous rounds. The point of your wager must be to prove your betting system, not find some flaw in my rules. Systems that are optimized to try to exploit some flaw in my challenge (rather than general systems which are actually intended to work in actual casinos), are specifically disallowed, as are card-counting systems.
Earnest Money & Contract. We'll choose a third party (agreeable to both of us) to hold our money in escrow (e.g., any licensed attorney in good standing). You'll deposit your money with the EA first to show that you're serious. You’ll also front the EA’s escrow fee. Once your money has been deposited, we'll both sign a contract, I’ll deposit my money, and pay you my half of the escrow fee which you fronted. After this, any party who backs out or fails to proceed as specified below will forfeit.
You will provide me your system rules within one week of our both signing the contract, and they must match what's stated in the version you're selling to the public. If I feel the rules are not clear I have 48 hours* to ask you to clarify, and you will have 48 hours to provide revised rules, with this process repeating if I feel the revised rules are still not clear. After two weeks from your sending me the the initial set of rules, if I feel the last-received rules are still not clear, then at my option I can claim to the EA that you've forfeited and ask them to pay out to me. If the EA doesn't agree, my options are to either try to get an understandable set of rules from you or else go to arbitration, as specified below. If the EA does agree, then you'll have the option of going to arbitration before the agent releases your funds to me. (This rule exists because one potential challenger submitted complete gibberish. Fortunately for him, it was before we signed a contract; now I require the contract be signed before I get the rules.)
I will program a computer simulation within three days* of my acceptance of the system rules, and provide you with the results as well as the source code so you can have your own expert(s) verify its accuracy. If you dispute the simulation results because you think my code is in error, and I agree, then I'll correct it and run the simulation again, with the new test being the official one. This will repeat as many times as you find errors that I agree are errors and fix. If you believe my code to be in error and I disagree, you can claim to the EA that I forfeit and to pay out to you. If the EA disagrees, you may submit the case to arbitration as below.
Arbitration. Either side may appeal the case to arbitration as specified above. Both sides will agree to the arbiter. If no arbiter has been agreed upon within three weeks, one party can claim the other side has forfeited by not making a good-faith effort to agree to an arbiter. (This time, the decision of the EA can't be appealed to arbitration, for obvious reasons.) Once an arbiter has been selected, the challenger will front any deposit required by the arbiter, no matter which side is bringing the arbitration. Once the arbiter has ruled, the losing party will pay all of the arbiter's fees. (i.e., If I lose, I pay both the amount fronted by the challenger and any remaining balance.)
In addition to the $30,000, a winning challenger will also receive a prominent ad on the front of Easy Vegas for the system, along with my statement that the system beat my challenge, for a period of at least one year from the date of the test.
I will not disclose the specific rules of the system without the challenger's permission (except to the EA and arbiter, if there's a dispute). I will be allowed (but not required) to publish:

The address of the website selling the system.
The name of the challenger, if it appears on the challenger's own website about the betting system (otherwise, I need the challenger's permission to publish his/her name).
A general description of the system. (e.g., "This is a standard positive-progression system," "This system is based on betting on red after a certain pattern of red/black hits has been established," etc.)
The basic results, including things such as the amount won or lost for each test, average bet size, percentage of time the system was ahead, and the largest number of rounds in each test at which the system was ahead before going into the red and not recovering.

*I will be granted a reasonable delay for things like hospitalization, extreme weather events, arrest, or any other event that prevents me from being able to meet the deadlines imposed by the rules.

I do not test betting systems outside of this challenge, period. My only interest in offering the challenge is to prove that betting systems available for sale are junk; I certainly don't need any more programming work. If all you want is a test of your system, hire anyone with some programming skills for $25-50 on Fiverr.

Those who are confident and agree to the terms without any modification whatsoever are invited to accept the challenge. (i.e., Do not write if you intend to suggest any change to the rules.)

Terms are subject to change. I don't guarantee to offer this challenge, or the one below, forever.

"But no one plays 200,000 rounds!"

Critics have said the challenge is unfair because a system could win in the short term, even if it can't last 200,000 rounds. They're missing two things. First, I'm offering a whopping 10 to 1 odds. With such generous odds, even a system with a lousy 9.1% chance of beating the challenge is a good bet for the challenger (and a bad bet for me and my $30,000). Their system could lose 91% of the time in the real world but still beat my challenge. And a system that loses 91% of the time in the real world is the farthest thing from a "winning betting system". So I've got to make sure we play long enough that a challenger doesn't have even a lousy 9.1% chance of winning. (And if I have time to run the numbers, I'll offer a challenge with far fewer than 200,000 rounds per test, but it'll be an even-money bet, not 10-1 odds.)

Next, my criteria for what constitutes a "winning system" is really soft: In the real world, a system that showed a measly $5 profit after 200,000 rounds (less than a penny an hour) would be considered a miserable failure, but that would be enough to win a test in my challenge rules. My challenge does not require the system to win a meaningful amount (say, $20 an hour); it counts even tiny, pathetic amounts as wins.

By the way, you absolutely could play 200,000 rounds anyway. Playing baccarat at 125 hands per hour, 8 hours on a weekend, 26 weekends per year, for 35 years, is nearly a million rounds.

No one has ever accepted this challenge

One reader said that a system-seller claimed to have beaten my challenge (or perhaps the Wizard's challenge, he wasn't clear). Let me be clear: no one has ever even accepted my challenge, let alone beaten it. And the one person who accepted the Wizard's challenge (back when he offered it), lost it readily. Anyone who claims they've beaten my challenge should show you the alleged contract we signed, listing the supposed escrow agent, allowing you to verify whether any challenge really took place.

$1000 prize for finding an exploitable flaw in the challenge

Because I'm offering 10-to-1 odds, it's possible that someone could beat my challenge even though their system would fail in the casino, since the casino doesn't give you 10-to-1 odds. So to help me find flaws in my challenge rules, I'm offering a $1000 prize to anyone who submits a system that would beat the challenge (even if that system would fail in a casino, as it certainly would). To claim the prize, you must have already programmed the simulation (or had it programmed for you) and send me the source code. (I'm not going to personally program a million people's random guesses about a system that might beat the challenge.) In the case of multiple people identifying a similar exploit, the first one to contact me gets the whole prize.

Random number quality

Some system sellers claim that their systems work in a casino, but they can't beat a computer simulation because "a computer isn't a real-world test". Anyone who understands basic probability knows why that claim is ridiculous, but in any event, I can remedy that objection.

Instead of using computer-generated numbers, I can use actual random numbers from Random.org, which are based on atmospheric noise. These are not computer-generated numbers, they’re generated by the natural world, and are perfectly random by definition. I don’t do this by default because it’s a hassle and completely unnecessary, but if a challenger insists, then I’ll do it.

The government won't protect you from fraudulent system sellers

If you thought that the government prosecutes people selling fake "winning" systems, think again. I couldn't find any cases of actual prosecutions of any of the numerous fake systems being sold all over the net. I once wrote to my state attorney general to complain about a commercially-sold "winning" slots system. I never heard back from him. He's a U.S. senator now.

Why the challenge isn't available to the general public

The challenge is now only available to those selling purported "winning" systems. I made it available to the whole general public as well for over ten years. Here’s why I now restrict to only system-sellers:

The whole point of the challenge is to show that what system-sellers are pushing is junk. Disproving some random guy's worthless idea is a far less interesting to me.
Non-sellers who merely believe they’ve come up with a winning system are simply misguided, not evil, and I have little desire to prey on their ignorance.
When I used to offer the challenge to everyone, would-be challengers wasted a lot of my time. They ask about things that are clearly spelled out in the rules (that they didn’t bother to read.) They don’t understand the rules. They want me to explain the rules to them. They want me to change the rules, despite this page saying in no uncertain terms that I won’t do so. And after all that, they never proceed with the challenge. This has wasted hours of my time. Enough is enough.
Anyone who thinks he has a winning betting system should simply test it. He should learn how to write a computer program, or hire a programmer. They’re available on Fiverr for as little as $25. If the results show that the system is successful, then was programmed wrong, then he should hire another programmer to code it properly. A properly-coded program will show that every betting system fails, and thus the inventor has no need to lose $3000 by taking my challenge.
The challenge was open to the general public for over a solid decade, but there were no takers. The opportunity was available, but nobody ponied up. That’s telling. Anyway, they had their chance.

The Wizard of Oddse ended his similar challenge years ago, for the time-wasting reasons also. (His challenge was available to the general public, not just system-sellers.) After many years he had only one legitimate taker. (The challenger lost, of course.)

Want to practice a betting system? Betting systems can't make you a winner, but by playing for free, you can test your theory without risking any real money.

I list Bovada here over other online casinos because:

You can play the fake-money games without having to register an account. (If you see a registration box, you can close it and proceed without registering.)
You can play the games in your browser without having to download special software.
The games work on both Macs and PC's.

This box is an advertisement, not an endorsement.

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Updates

June 16, 2025: Upped the limit on sitting out from 2000 rounds per 200,000-round test, to 800,000 rounds per test.
June 11, 2025: Removed the $1000/$10,000 option. If the contest goes to arbitration, then between the escrow fee and the arbitration fee, that could eat up my entire profit.
June 11, 2025: Removed the Live Challenge that would take place in a land casino. No one ever took me up on it, and I no longer have the time to devote to it if someone did.
June 10, 2025: Abbreviated Escrow Agent, added an out to the 3-day programming deadline for unforeseen events.